Nhau Dzakamuka: VaTrump Kuti Vatemedze Mutero paGlobal Semiconductors uye Chips Kutenderedza Svondo Inotevera

VaTrump kuti vatemese mutero kune yepasi rose semiconductor uye chip kunze kwenyika svondo rinouya

 

Musi waNyamavhuvhu 5, nguva yemuno, mubvunzurudzo neCNBC, Trump akazivisa chinangwa chake chekutemesa mutero kune anounzwa kunze semiconductors uye machipisi "svondo rinouya," asi haana kupa ruzivo rwekuti izvi zvaizoitwa sei. Izvi hazvisi zvitsva; izano rinoenderana muutungamiri hwake hwose. Nekudaro, panguva ino, kunanga semiconductors kungangowedzera kuwedzera iyo yatove isingaite yepasirese semiconductor indasitiri chain.

 

Izvo zviri pasi pesimba zvinonyatsozivikanwa. VaTrump vakaenderera mberi nemaitiro avo e "America Chekutanga" kubva patemu yavo yechipiri, vachigara vachishandisa mitero sechombo mukutengesa. Pakutanga, aigara achitemera EU neChina, uye akatosundira CHIPS Act kukurudzira makambani kuvaka mafekitori muUS. Panguva ino, kunanga semiconductors kwakajeka kune chero munhu ane ziso rinonzwisisa, achivavarira kukurumidza kuchinjika kwepasirese kugadzira kugona kuUS, kuderedza kuvimba neAsia yekugovera cheni, uye kuchengetedza chinzvimbo chikuru cheUS muindasitiri.

 

Pamutemo, chinangwa chingangove chiri kutamba kadhi "chekuchengetedzwa kwenyika", uchishandisa Chikamu 232 cheTrade Expansion Act ye1962. Ongororo yakafanana yakaitwa pazvigadzirwa zvakaita semiconductors nemishonga, uye mhedzisiro inogona kuburitswa svondo rino. Kana kuferefetwa kwakawana kuti semiconductors inotengeswa kunze kwenyika inotyisidzira kuchengetedza, mitero ye25% kusvika 50% inogona kunge iripo.

 

Global Impact: Kuwedzera Kuvhiringidza kweGlobal Semiconductor uye Chip Supply Chain

 

Kubva pakuona kwekuita, iyo global semiconductor supply chain pasina mubvunzo ichakanganiswa. United States parizvino inovimba zvakanyanya neAsia kugadzira kugona. Taiwan's advanced process tekinoroji inoverengera 92% yekugadzirwa kwepasirese, uye South Korea ndiyo inotungamira mune memory chips. Kana mutero ukaiswa, makambani akaita seTSMC neSamsung angangomhanya kuvaka mafekitori muUnited States kudzivirira mutero. TSMC yakatoisa mari inosvika mabhiriyoni zana nemakumi matanhatu neshanu emadhora muArizona, uye South Korea yakawedzera mari yayo yekutsigira semiconductor kusvika 33 trillion yakahwina, ese ari mukugadzirira.

 

Kuwedzera kwemitengo hakudzivisiki zvakare. Apple, semuenzaniso, inovimba zvakanyanya neTSMC kune yayo mbozha mbozha nemachipisi emakombuta. Kana mitengo yakwira ne15% kusvika 20%, mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvekupedzisira pasina mubvunzo uchawedzera, uye vatengiwo zvavo vachafanira kubhadhara yakawanda. Kunyangwe ASML yakataura kuti mitero inogona kukanganisa kutengeserana. Kunyangwe hazvo-repoti yezvemari yekota yaive yakanaka, zvichiri kushushikana.

 

EU: Kunetsana kwehupfumi nekutengeserana kuri kuwedzera, uye kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika kunofanirawo kusimbaradzwa. China yakashandura mitemo yayo yesemiconductor yemabviro, ikozvino yave kuverenga nzvimbo dzekugadzira wafer pane kurongedza nzvimbo, mukuyedza kudzikisira kukanganiswa kwemitero. EU yakambotenga mabhiriyoni mazana manomwe nemakumi mashanu emadhora musimba reUS, zvichikonzera chibvumirano chemitero chegumi neshanu, asi michina yesemiconductor inogona kuramba yakatarisana nemitengo yakasiyana, zvichikonzera kupokana kusingadzivisiki.

 

Taiwan: Matunhu akasiyana akatarisana nenguva dzakaoma. Taiwan's semiconductor inotengeswa kunze kwenyika inoita 20.8% yezvese zvayo zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Kana mutero ukakwira pamusoro pe25%, zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuUS zvingangove zvisingakwikwidze, uye mabhizinesi madiki anogona kutovhara. Bazi reTaiwan's Directorate{{5}General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics rakaona kuti mutero we20% unogona kukonzera kukura kwehupfumi pagore kubva pa3.1% kusvika pa2.5%, kana kukura kwakaipa.

 

Chammhembe Koria: Nepo memory machipisi ari akasimba anoita, akakura magadzirirwo zvigadzirwa senge mota machipisi anogona kurasikirwa nemutengo wazvo nekuda kwemitero. Hurumende yeSouth Korea inoronga kupa 500 bhiriyoni yakahwina kuti itsigire makambani madiki neari pakati-netariro yekukunda zviri kuitika kuburikidza nekuvandudzwa kweruzivo rwemichina.

 

China Mainland: Tinogona chaizvo kukurumidza kutsiva mudzimba. Iyo Semiconductor Indasitiri Association yakajekesa kuti nzvimbo yekubva inotarwa nenzvimbo yekugadzira wafer. Mazhinji makambani ekugadzira ekunze anogona kushandura kugadzirwa kwewafer kune vagadziri vepamba seSMIC neHuahong. Vagadziri veAnalog chip vakaita seShengbang Semiconductor uye SiRuiPu vanogona kuona musika wavo wemusika uchiwedzera.

 

United States: KuUS pachayo, ichi chikomborero chakasanganiswa. Nepo panogona kunge paine-nguva pfupi yekudzosa vanhu kumusha, kuvaka cheni yakakwana zvinotora makore. IUS parizvino yakatarisana nekushomeka kwemidziyo yesemiconductor, zvinhu, uye tarenda, uye haizokwanise kubata nekukurumidza. Kana zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuChina zvakatenderwa kumakambani akaita seIntel neTexas Instruments, mugove wavo wemusika unogona kutorwa nemakambani ekuChina. Uyezve, kana mutero ukakwira, zvemagetsi nemotokari zvichawedzera kudhura, zvingangodhura vatengi vekuAmerica makumi emabhiriyoni gore negore, zvichiwedzera kuwedzera inflation.

 

Mhinduro dzedunhu dzinogona kushomeka, uye mhirizhonga muchikamu chesemiconductor yave kuda kutanga.

 

Marudzi haagari achingogara pasi. Taiwan inogona kuisa mari yakawanda muUnited States, pamwe nekuwedzera TSMC kugona kugadzira uye kutenga zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvekurima zvekuAmerica uye simba mukutsinhana nekudzikiswa kwemitero. Nekudaro, pane zvakare kunetseka mukati mechitsuwa chekuti kuvimba zvakanyanya neUS kunogona kutungamira kune tekinoroji kubuda uye kukanganisa chinzvimbo chayo se "silicon shield."

 

Pamusoro pekudyara kwayo, South Korea inodawo kubatana neEU neJapan kugadzirisa mamiriro ezvinhu. Semuenzaniso, inogona kushandira pamwe neEU pane tekinoroji yekurongedza kuti ideredze kuvimba kwayo neUS.

 

KuChina, masemiconductors ndiwo anonyanya kutariswa muChirongwa cheMakore Echi14-, uye gadziridzo kumitemo yemabviro iri kushandiswa kukwezva maodha ekunze. SMIC yakatozivisa hurongwa hwekuwedzera 28nm chip kugadzirwa muShanghai, ichitora maodha anogona kutsauswa kubva kuTaiwan.

 

Zvisinei, pachine zvakawanda zvisina chokwadi. Iwo chaiwo mazinga emutero, zvigadzirwa zviri pasi pekumisikidzwa, uye chero kusabvumirwa zvese zvinofanirwa kumirira kuziviswa kwaTrump kwakadzama svondo rinouya. Kana mutengo wemutero wakaderera pane unotarisirwa, zvichida 15% kusvika 20%, kukanganisa kwemusika kunogona kuderedzwa; zvisinei, kana inosvika 50%, iyo yepasi rose semiconductor indasitiri ichasangana nekugadzirisa kukuru.

 

Makambani anewo zvirongwa zvawo. TSMC neSamsung dzingawedzera kuedza kwadzo kuvaka mafekitari muU.S, ukuwo makambani madiki nepakati-akakura achikwanisa kutamira kuSoutheast Asia kana India. MaTaiwanese ekurongedza uye ekuyedza makambani akaita seASE nePowerchip ari kutofunga nezvekuwedzera kugadzirwa muVietnam.

 

Mutero weUS unilateral unilateral tariffs unogona kunetesa nzira dzeWTO dzepasi rose, zvichiita kuti zvibvumirano zvekutengeserana zvedunhu se "Quad" mubatanidzwa pakati peUS, Japan, India, neAustralia ive yakakurumbira. Nekudaro, China neEU zvinogona zvakare kutsiva nemitero inodzokororwa, izvo zvinogona kutungamira kune kuwedzera kukamuka kwekutengeserana kwepasirese mamiriro.

 

Kazhinji, danho raTrump rine chinangwa chekushandisa mutero kutsausa cheni dzekugovera kuUS uye nekubatanidza hukuru hwetekinoroji. Nekudaro, kune akakosha mhedzisiro: yakawedzera mitengo, yakavhiringidza macheni ekupa, uye yakawedzera njodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika. Makambani anofanirwa kunyatso tarisisa iwo maturu emitengo uye nekunyatsoronga yavo yekugovera cheni. Padanho renyika, kuenzanisa kunofanirwa kuitwa pakati pekuchengetedzwa kwemaindasitiri nekutengeserana mwero kudzivirira mhedzisiro inoparadzana. Zviziviso zvakanangana naVaTrump svondo rinouya zvichange zvakakosha pakuona mafambiro eindasitiri yepasi rose semiconductor.